Sector Rotation Tracker — Weekly Flow Analysis

Over the past 12 months, the spread between XLE and XLK total returns has swung by more than 40 percentage points across three distinct rotation windows — and small-caps inside each sleeve moved twice as far. This hub is where we track those moves week by week: sector rotation, factor flows, and ETF positioning across the 11 GICS sectors, the four canonical Fama-French factors, and the 40-odd liquid sector and thematic ETFs that institutional desks actually trade. Coverage is weekly, US-focused, and skewed toward small- and mid-cap names where the rotation actually changes P&L instead of just headlines.

Data Sources Behind Every Tracker

Every Sector Rotation Tracker piece pulls primary data, never aggregator pass-through. Macro backdrop comes from FRED (yield curve, ISM, financial conditions) and BLS (CPI components by sector exposure, nonfarm payroll diffusion). Positioning data is built from the CFTC Commitment of Traders report for equity-index and crude futures, cross-checked against EIA weekly petroleum stocks for the energy sleeve. Fund-level holdings and sector tilts come straight from SEC EDGAR 13F and N-PORT filings, and short-dated options skew comes from CBOE-listed chains on XLE, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLV, and XLP.

The methodology is a three-step funnel: (1) compute trailing 1-week, 1-month, and 3-month relative-strength rankings across the 11 SPDR sector ETFs versus SPY; (2) overlay factor moves — value vs. growth, low-vol vs. high-beta, quality vs. junk — using the IVE/IVW, SPLV/SPHB, and QUAL/SPHB pairs as proxies; (3) cross-reference flow data and 13F deltas to separate price-driven rotation from real money moving. The output is always a named ticker, a sized move, and the macro signal that triggered it.

How to Read the Weekly Output

• Leader/laggard table — 1W and 1M relative performance for all 11 sectors versus SPY, with the standout small-cap holding inside each leading sleeve flagged.
• Factor heatmap — value/growth, size, low-vol, and quality rotation expressed as basis-point spreads, not vague directional calls.
• Positioning delta — week-over-week change in CFTC non-commercial net positioning and notable 13F rotations from the prior quarter’s filings.
• Options skew flag — when 25-delta put/call skew on a sector ETF moves more than 1.5 standard deviations, we name the sector and the implied catalyst window.
• Named-ticker watchlist — three to five small- or mid-cap names with concentrated exposure to the rotation, including float, average daily volume, and the next dated catalyst.

A Recent Working Example

In the April 2026 rotation window, XLE outperformed XLK by 7.8 percentage points over a single fortnight as front-month WTI broke above $82 and EIA weekly crude stocks printed a 5.4-million-barrel draw against a 1.1-million-barrel consensus build. CFTC non-commercial net long positioning in WTI futures expanded by 38,000 contracts the same week, and 25-delta XLE call skew turned positive for the first time since October 2025. The tracker flagged three small-cap E&P names with sub-$2B market caps and Permian acreage exposure where average daily volume jumped more than 3x baseline within 48 hours of the EIA print. That is the level of granularity the hub aims to deliver every week.

Related Coverage

For the macro layer that drives sector decisions, see our Macro Tracker hub. For single-name small-cap work that often sits downstream of rotation calls, see Small-Cap Deep Dives. Earnings-driven sector moves are catalogued in the Earnings Radar, and full methodology, source list, and revision policy are on the Methodology page.

Latest Analysis

First weekly piece on Sector rotation, factor flows, ETF positioning arrives soon.